Democrats were counting on a rapid burst of diversification in the U.S. fueled by immigration to help Hillary Clinton. But it may have helped put Donald Trump in the White House.
The more rapidly a county has diversified since the start of this century, the more likely voters there were to cast ballots for the Republican nominee, a Wall Street Journal analysis of voting results and census data shows. It appears to be one reason Mr. Trump turned some traditional blue states into red states, including Wisconsin.
The Journal identified counties that had seen the most rapid demographic change since 2000 using the diversity index, a tool used by social scientists and economists. It measures the chance that any two people in a county will have a different race or ethnicity.
The analysis concluded that small towns in the Midwest diversified more quickly than almost any part of the U.S. between 2000 and 2015 particularly with Latinos moving into heavily white areas, particularly in Iowa, Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota.
Although southern border states have drawn a far greater number of Mexican and other Central American immigrants during this century’s immigration wave, their diversity changed little because they have long had racially mixed populations.